Taliban takeover prompts fears of a resurgent al-Qaida

WASHINGTON — The lightning-fast changes successful Afghanistan are forcing the Biden medication to face the imaginable of a resurgent al-Qaida, the radical that attacked America connected Sept. 11, 2001, astatine the aforesaid clip the U.S. is trying to stanch convulsive extremism astatine location and cyberattacks from Russia and China.

With the accelerated withdrawal of U.S. forces and emergence of the Taliban successful Afghanistan, “I deliberation al-Qaida has an opportunity, and they’re going to instrumentality vantage of that opportunity,” says Chris Costa, who was elder manager for counterterrorism successful the Trump administration.

“This is simply a galvanizing lawsuit for jihadists everywhere.”

Al-Qaida’s ranks person been importantly diminished by 20 years of warfare successful Afghanistan, and it’s acold from wide that the radical has the capableness successful the adjacent aboriginal to transportation retired catastrophic attacks connected America specified arsenic the 9/11 strikes, particularly fixed however the U.S. has fortified itself successful the past 2 decades with surveillance and different protective measures.

But a June study from the U.N. Security Council said the group’s elder enactment remains contiguous wrong Afghanistan, on with hundreds of equipped operatives. It noted that the Taliban, who sheltered al-Qaida fighters earlier the Sept. 11 attacks, “remain close, based connected friendship, a past of shared struggle, ideological sympathy and intermarriage.”

Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby acknowledged Friday that al-Qaida remains a beingness successful Afghanistan, though quantifying it is hard due to the fact that of a reduced intelligence-gathering capableness successful the state and “because it’s not similar they transportation recognition cards and registry somewhere.”

Even wrong the country, al-Qaida and the Taliban correspond lone 2 of the urgent coercion concerns, arsenic evidenced by unease astir the imaginable for Islamic State attacks against Americans successful Afghanistan that implicit the play forced the U.S. subject to make caller ways to get evacuees to the airdrome successful Kabul. The Taliban and IS person fought each different successful the past, but the interest present is that Afghanistan could again beryllium a harmless harbor for aggregate extremists determined to onslaught the U.S. oregon different countries.

President Joe Biden has spoken repeatedly of what helium calls an “over-the-horizon capability” that helium says volition alteration the U.S. to support way of coercion threats from afar. His nationalist information adviser, Jake Sullivan, told reporters Monday that Biden has been wide that counterterrorism capabilities person evolved to the constituent wherever the menace tin beryllium suppressed without a beardown boots-on-the-ground presence. He said the quality assemblage does not judge al-Qaida presently has the capableness to onslaught the U.S.

The U.S. is besides presumably anticipating that strengthened airdrome screening and much blase surveillance tin beryllium much effectual than 20 years agone successful thwarting an attack. But experts interest that intelligence-gathering capabilities needed arsenic an early-warning strategy against an onslaught volition beryllium negatively affected by the unit withdrawal.

An added complication is the sheer measurement of pressing nationalist information threats that dwarf what the U.S. authorities was confronting earlier the Sept. 11 attacks. These see blase cyber operations from China and Russia that tin cripple captious infrastructure oregon pilfer delicate secrets, atomic ambitions successful Iran and an ascendant home coercion menace laid bare by the Jan. 6 insurrection astatine the U.S. Capitol.

FBI Director Chris Wray has described that home-grown menace arsenic “metastasizing,” with the fig of arrests of achromatic supremacists and racially motivated extremists astir tripling since his archetypal twelvemonth connected the job.

“My interest is that you can’t comparison 2001 to today,” said Bruce Hoffman, a coercion adept astatine Georgetown University. There’s a “much vaster and amended organized bureaucracy,” helium said, but it’s burdened with demands not specifically tied to terrorism.

Hoffman said that though helium didn’t deliberation al-Qaida would beryllium capable to rapidly usage Afghanistan arsenic a launchpad for attacks against the U.S., it whitethorn re-establish “its coordinating function” successful the portion to enactment with and promote strikes by its affiliates — a diligent strategy that whitethorn yet beryllium vindicated.

“Terrorist groups don’t conform to bid timetables oregon formation schedules,” Hoffman said. “They bash things erstwhile it suits them and, arsenic al-Qaida was doing, they softly laic the instauration successful hopes that that instauration volition yet impact oregon find their success.”

The interest is resonant capable that Biden medication officials told Congress past week that, based connected the evolving situation, they present judge panic groups similar al-Qaida whitethorn beryllium capable to turn overmuch faster than expected. In June, the Pentagon’s apical leaders said an extremist radical similar al-Qaida whitethorn beryllium capable to regenerate successful Afghanistan and airs a menace to the U.S. homeland wrong 2 years of the American military’s withdrawal.

The Sept. 11 attacks made al-Qaida the astir internationally recognizable panic group, but successful the past decennary astatine least, the astir potent menace wrong the U.S. has travel from individuals inspired by the Islamic State, resulting successful deadly massacres similar the ones successful San Bernardino, California, and Orlando.

But al-Qaida hardly disappeared. U.S. authorities alleged past twelvemonth that a Saudi gunman who killed 3 U.S. sailors astatine a subject basal successful Florida successful 2019 had communicated with al-Qaida operatives astir readying and tactics. Last December, the Justice Department charged a Kenyan antheral with trying to signifier a 9/11-style onslaught connected the U.S. connected behalf of the violent enactment al-Shabab, which is linked to al-Qaida.

Now it’s imaginable that different extremists volition find themselves inspired by al-Qaida, adjacent if not directed by it.

“Until recently, I would person said that the menace from al-Qaida halfway is beauteous modest. They didn’t person harmless haven successful Afghanistan, their elder enactment was scattered,” said Nathan Sales, erstwhile coordinator for counterterrorism astatine the State Department.

But, present with the Taliban backmost successful control, “all of that could alteration and could alteration precise rapidly.”