Pac-12 stock report: Poor top-25 poll position creates upside opportunity

3 years ago 331

Commentary connected Pac-12 developments disconnected the tract …

Falling: Pac-12 shot respect.

The Coaches preseason poll, released Tuesday, was predictably airy connected Pac-12 representation. Only 3 teams made the cut, and nary ranked successful the apical 10.

Oregon occupied the No. 12 position, followed by No. 14 USC and No. 21 Washington.

In quantity and quality, it’s the worst showing for the league successful the Coaches preseason canvass since 2010, erstwhile Oregon (No. 11) and Oregon State (No. 22) were the lone teams ranked. (USC was ineligible.)

The preseason polls are not wholly meaningless. They assistance found expectations for coaches, teams and conferences that are hard to shed.

The little you start, the much hard the ascent into the apical 10 — the longer it takes for preseason bias to evaporate.

Oh, and don’t hide this for a league successful request of vulnerability for its apical teams: The top-25 rankings power TV executives erstwhile they determine which games to slot into assorted windows during the play selections.

Rising: Pac-12 shot opportunity.

We expect the AP preseason poll, scheduled for merchandise aboriginal adjacent week, to way intimately with the Coaches canvass successful its attraction of the Pac-12.

Combine the two, and expectations for the league entering the 2021 play volition beryllium little than successful immoderate non-pandemic twelvemonth since enlargement a decennary ago.

Up arrow

That creates a premier accidental for the Pac-12 to nutrient an upside surprise, fueled by prime depth, astir comparable to what we saw successful the NCAA tournament.

At this point, it’s hard to pinpoint a roster susceptible of reaching the College Football Playoff — a roster bully capable to spell 13-0 oregon 12-1. (No two-loss squad has ever made the CFP, and the archetypal 1 surely won’t travel from the Pac-12.)

But with truthful galore returning starters crossed truthful galore rosters, the Pac-12 could precise good nutrient 5 oregon six ranked teams by the extremity of the season.

The Hotline’s preseason ballot, submitted to the AP yesterday, reflects the anticipation of awesome prime depth.

We ranked Pac-12 teams successful the pursuing positions:

No. 11 OregonNo. 13 Arizona StateNo. 16 UtahNo. 20 USCNo. 22 Washington

If you’re looking for imaginable precedent for the coming fall, the Hotline would suggest the oft-overlooked 2013 season:

The Pac-12’s apical squad astatine the extremity of that year, Oregon, was simply No. 9 successful the last AP poll, but determination were six ranked teams.

Falling: Pac-12 governance respect.

The NCAA connected Tuesday released the names of 23 assemblage officials who volition service connected a Constitution Committee designed to “identify the halfway principles that specify assemblage sports and suggest a caller governance model.”

NCAA president Mark Emmert wants to restructure the sprawling relation — astatine least, helium claims to wants to — and has charged the committee with formulating an enactment plan.

The radical includes representatives from each large league … but the Pac-12.

It’s a startling omission but not needfully a imperishable one: We judge the concern is fluid and that by the clip the committee begins its work, the Pac-12 will, successful fact, beryllium represented.

Rising: Pac-12 governance opportunity.

Let’s presume an administrative oversight by the NCAA (imagine that!) was the origin of the omission and the league receives a spot connected the committee sooner than later.

Then what? How mightiness the committee interaction the aboriginal of assemblage sports?

That’s anyone’s guess. There’s bully crushed to wonderment if dozens of administrators whose careers are rooted successful the strategy volition really execute connected the task of overhauling that system.

But arsenic adjacent Emmert realizes, monolithic alteration is necessary.

The NCAA tin nary longer cling to a governance exemplary that binds Alabama to the aforesaid economical regulations arsenic Alabama A&M.

If Emmert doesn’t instrumentality a proactive approach, helium volition look revolution.

The NCAA doesn’t power the wealth flowing to assemblage football, wherever media rights are funneled from the networks to the conferences to the schools.

But determination is simply a monolithic root of currency wrong its jurisdiction: March Madness, which generates much than $700 cardinal per twelvemonth for the NCAA.

Only a information of that currency goes straight to the conferences that make the TV assemblage that justifies the advertizing dollars astatine the basal of the media contracts that marque up the bulk of the NCAA’s yearly revenue.

That revenue, successful turn, supports diversion departments each the mode down to Division III.

And the large schools are increasing frustrated. They request cash, they’re bushed of supporting Division II and III, and they privation the operation to change.

While an overhaul of the economical exemplary isn’t Emmert’s stated goal, it’s the apt end-game successful his program to “reimagine aspects of assemblage sports” — a program that starts with the constitution committee.

Falling: Arizona State’s coaching staff.

Two much assistants person been disciplined since the NCAA’s probe began, with receivers manager Prentice Gill and antiaircraft backs manager Chris Hawkins joining choky ends manager Adam Breneman connected paid leave.

That’s 3 assistants connected the bench, 1 dossier of grounds and zero crushed (thus far) for the nationalist to judge the allegations — that ASU hosted prospects during a recruiting dormant play caused by the pandemic — are false.

Down arrow

What’s next? Two issues are worthy monitoring:

— The timing.

Will the NCAA either wide ASU of wrongdoing oregon contented sanctions earlier the season?

We’re skeptical. Even with the dossier helping expedite the process, the opener is successful 3 weeks.

An enforcement limb that typically moves similar a tortoise would person to crook into Usain Bolt.

— The personnel.

So far, lone presumption coaches person been placed connected permission — the aforesaid 3 presumption coaches cited successful the archetypal media reports.

The adjacent disciplinary step, if a adjacent measurement is coming, would seemingly impact 1 of the large three: antiaircraft coordinator/recruiting mastermind Antonio Pierce, caput manager Herm Edwards oregon lawman diversion manager Jean Boyd, who oversees the shot program.

Meanwhile, the Sun Devils are churning guardant with a loaded extent illustration and their sights connected the part title, seemingly dormant acceptable connected creating a nightmare script for the conference:

A programme nether probe for deplorable violations playing for the Pac-12 rubric connected the large signifier astatine Allegiant Stadium.

Rising: UCLA hoops schedule.

The quality was important but casual to miss, particularly for fans who don’t travel the Bruins intimately and are afloat engaged successful shot matters.

UCLA’s non-conference lineup for the 2021-22 play has been finalized, and it includes Villanova, Gonzaga and North Carolina.

(The archetypal is astatine home, the second 2 successful Las Vegas.)

Those are showcase games for the Bruins, who instrumentality their full halfway and should clasp a top-five ranking erstwhile the play begins.

And they are showcase games for the conference, which needs marquee wins aboriginal successful the play to physique connected the momentum generated past March and to presumption itself for desirable seeds connected Selection Sunday.

Nothing would fortify the conference’s metrics and boost its estimation amended than marquee victories by its apical hoops brand.


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