The start-or-sit dilemma is portion of managing a phantasy shot team.
Having the foresight to commencement the wide receiver who goes for 100 yards and a touchdown successful a matchup portion sitting a receiver against a shutdown cornerback is 1 of the keys to victory.
For this mentation of a start-or-sit, I’m going to beryllium listing each applicable phantasy shot players each week and placing them into tiers.
And to instrumentality immoderate of the guesswork retired of it, I’ll beryllium leveraging thousands of slate simulations that are based successful numberFire’s subordinate projections with dynamic measures for variance, specified arsenic backmost rushing, moving backmost receiving, and receiver people depth.
The results volition boil down to 3 tiers: players we should beryllium assured astir starting, players we tin see starting whenever we don’t person amended alternatives, but who aren’t must-plays and players we should effort to seat whenever we bash person amended alternatives.
These players are listed successful bid of frequence of hitting the stated threshold (i.e. QB12, RB24, WR24, and TE12 performances and higher connected the database means much start-able).
The groupings bespeak a 12-team, single-quarterback league with the pursuing hypothetical successful mind: if I had different viable options connected my seat oregon the waiver-wire, should I commencement this subordinate this week?
Players not listed should beryllium presumed sit-worthy successful a shallow oregon standard-sized league, and each phantasy points references and rankings bespeak half-PPR scoring.
QUARTERBACKS
Start with confidence
These players are astatine slightest 50% apt to decorativeness the week arsenic a top-12 quarterback, according to the slate simulations.
- Patrick Mahomes astatine BAL (70%)
- Kyler Murray vs. MIN (62%)
- Josh Allen astatine MIA (61%)
- Dak Prescott astatine LAC (61%)
- Russell Wilson vs. TEN (60%)
- Justin Herbert vs. DAL (58%)
- Lamar Jackson vs. KC (57%)
- Tom Brady vs. ATL (56%)
Consider if needed
This tier has likelihood betwixt 35% and 49% to station a top-12 week.
- Aaron Rodgers vs. DET (46%)
- Jalen Hurts vs. SF (43%)
- Matthew Stafford astatine IND (41%)
- Baker Mayfield vs. HOU (41%)
- Joe Burrow astatine CHI (39%)
- Ben Roethlisberger vs. LV (38%)
Despite Aaron Rodgers’ mediocre crippled successful Week 1, the simulations are precocious connected him to station a top-12 week against the Detroit Lions, who allowed Jimmy Garoppolo to propulsion for 314 yards connected conscionable 25 attempts.
Bench if possible
These quarterbacks are nether 35% apt (15th oregon worse) to nett a top-12 effect and aren’t successful the one-quarterback-league conversation.
- Teddy Bridgewater astatine JAC (34%)
- Jimmy Garoppolo astatine PHI (34%)
- Ryan Tannehill astatine SEA (34%)
- Tua Tagovailoa vs. BUF (31%)
- Jameis Winston astatine CAR (31%)
- Kirk Cousins astatine ARI (30%)
- Trevor Lawrence vs. DEN (29%)
- Matt Ryan astatine TB (26%)
- Sam Darnold vs. NO (26%)
- Tyrod Taylor astatine CLE (26%)
- Zach Wilson vs. NE (24%)
- Jared Goff astatine GB (24%)
- Derek Carr astatine PIT (23%)
- Carson Wentz vs. LA (23%)
- Daniel Jones astatine WSH (22%)
- Taylor Heinicke vs. NYG (18%)
- Mac Jones astatine NYJ (18%)
- Andy Dalton vs. CIN (16%)
RUNNING BACK
Start with confidence
These moving backs are astatine slightest 65% apt to decorativeness the week wrong the apical 24, according to the slate simulations. You’re starting them.
- Christian McCaffrey vs. NO (82%)
- Dalvin Cook astatine ARI (82%)
- Derrick Henry astatine SEA (80%)
- Alvin Kamara astatine CAR (79%)
- Nick Chubb vs. HOU (78%)
- Aaron Jones vs. DET (76%)
- Antonio Gibson vs. NYG (72%)
- Chris Carson vs. TEN (69%)
- David Montgomery vs. CIN (68%)
- Saquon Barkley astatine WSH (66%)
- Najee Harris vs. LV (66%)
- Joe Mixon astatine CHI (65%)
- Ezekiel Elliott astatine LAC (65%)
Consider if needed
This tier is sitting betwixt 40% and 64% for an RB2 week, and you’re astir apt starting immoderate of them adjacent if they’re shy of that apical tier.
- D’Andre Swift astatine GB (64%)
- Austin Ekeler vs. DAL (64%)
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire astatine BAL (62%)
- Damien Harris astatine NYJ (61%)
- Jonathan Taylor vs. LA (60%)
- Miles Sanders vs. SF (59%)
- Myles Gaskin vs. BUF (56%)
- Mike Davis astatine TB (55%)
- Chase Edmonds vs. MIN (53%)
- Darrell Henderson astatine IND (49%)
- James Robinson vs. DEN (48%)
- Melvin Gordon astatine JAC (48%)
- Leonard Fournette vs. ATL (42%)
- Josh Jacobs astatine PIT (40%)
Bench If Possible
These backs are nether 35% apt to nett a top-12 result.
- Javonte Williams astatine JAC (37%)
- Devin Singletary astatine MIA (37%)
- Kareem Hunt vs. HOU (35%)
- Kenyan Drake astatine PIT (33%)
- James White astatine NYJ (32%)
- Ty’Son Williams vs. KC (27%)
- Elijah Mitchell astatine PHI (27%)
- Damien Williams vs. CIN (26%)
- Jamaal Williams astatine GB (26%)
- Nyheim Hines vs. LA (24%)
- Ronald Jones vs. ATL (23%)
- J.D. McKissic vs. NYG (22%)
- James Conner vs. MIN (21%)
- David Johnson astatine CLE (21%)
WIDE RECEIVER
Start with confidence
You’re starting these guys successful a 12-team league.
- Tyreek Hill astatine BAL (75%)
- Davante Adams vs. DET (68%)
- DeAndre Hopkins vs. MIN (67%)
- Stefon Diggs astatine MIA (62%)
- D.K. Metcalf vs. TEN (62%)
- Calvin Ridley astatine TB (61%)
- Amari Cooper astatine LAC (57%)
- A.J. Brown astatine SEA (56%)
- Keenan Allen vs. DAL (56%)
- CeeDee Lamb astatine LAC (54%)
- Justin Jefferson astatine ARI (54%)
- Tyler Lockett vs. TEN (52%)
- Deebo Samuel astatine PHI (51%)
- Chris Godwin vs. ATL (51%)
Consider if needed
These players are much matchup babelike for Week 1 than the tier above, but are apt wherever we are looking for a batch of our WR2, WR3, and FLEX plays this week.
- Allen Robinson vs. CIN (46%)
- Diontae Johnson vs. LV (44%)
- Jarvis Landry vs. HOU (43%)
- Cooper Kupp astatine IND (43%)
- Ja’Marr Chase astatine CHI (42%)
- Tee Higgins astatine CHI (41%)
- Robert Woods astatine IND (40%)
- Mike Evans vs. ATL (39%)
- Antonio Brown vs. ATL (39%)
- Terry McLaurin vs. NYG (39%)
- Courtland Sutton astatine JAC (38%)
- Corey Davis vs. NE (38%)
- D.J. Moore vs. NO (36%)
- DeVonta Smith vs. SF (36%)
- Marvin Jones vs. DEN (35%)
- Adam Thielen astatine ARI (35%)
- Julio Jones astatine SEA (34%)
- Brandin Cooks astatine CLE (33%)
- Mike Williams vs. DAL (32%)
- Chase Claypool vs. LV (32%)
- DJ Chark vs. DEN (30%)
Bench if possible
These players finished arsenic a WR2 oregon amended nether 25% of the time.
- Kenny Golladay astatine WSH (30%)
- Marquise Brown vs. KC (26%)
- Will Fuller vs. BUF (26%)
- Tyler Boyd astatine CHI (26%)
- Henry Ruggs astatine PIT (26%)
- Emmanuel Sanders astatine MIA (23%)
- JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. LV (23%)
- Robby Anderson vs. NO (21%)
- Tyrell Williams astatine GB (21%)
- Jakobi Meyers astatine NYJ (21%)
- A.J. Green vs. MIN (20%)
- Brandon Aiyuk astatine PHI (20%)
- Christian Kirk vs. MIN (20%)
- Rondale Moore vs. MIN (19%)
- Laviska Shenault vs. DEN (19%)
- Cole Beasley astatine MIA (19%)
- Nelson Agholor astatine NYJ (18%)
- Darius Slayton astatine WSH (18%)
- Jaylen Waddle vs. BUF (18%)
- Jalen Reagor vs. SF (17%)
- DeVante Parker vs. BUF (17%)
- Michael Pittman Jr. vs. LA (16%)
- Zach Pascal vs. LA (15%)
- Sterling Shepard astatine WSH (14%)
- Tim Patrick astatine JAC (14%)
TIGHT END
Start with confidence
These guys are the large five.
- Travis Kelce astatine BAL (85%)
- George Kittle astatine PHI (78%)
- Darren Waller astatine PIT (74%)
- Mark Andrews vs. KC (64%)
- Kyle Pitts astatine TB (59%)
Consider if needed
You’ll apt beryllium starting these options if you don’t person a top-five choky end.
- Noah Fant astatine JAC (54%)
- T.J. Hockenson astatine GB (51%)
- Rob Gronkowski vs. ATL (46%)
- Jared Cook vs. DAL (43%)
- Logan Thomas vs. NYG (41%)
- Dallas Goedert vs. SF (40%)
- Austin Hooper vs. HOU (38%)
- Jonnu Smith astatine NYJ (36%)
- Tyler Higbee astatine IND (34%)
Bench if possible
These choky ends aren’t successful the starting speech successful 12-team leagues.
- Hayden Hurst astatine TB (31%)
- Eric Ebron vs. LV (30%)
- Zach Ertz vs. SF (30%)
- Mike Gesicki vs. BUF (29%)
- Robert Tonyan vs. DET (29%)
- Dawson Knox astatine MIA (26%)
- Hunter Henry astatine NYJ (25%)
- Adam Trautman astatine CAR (24%)